- There are different types of risk assessment tools used across the humanitarian and public sectors, including the UNHCR’s Vulnerability Assessment Framework (VAF) (UNHCR, 2018); the International Organization for Migration’s TACT risk assessment matrix (IOM, 2016); the DASH checklist (Richards, 2009) for domestic violence; and the Slavery and Trafficking Risk Template (Social Responsibility Alliance, 2018) as well as the Management of Risk in Law Enforcement (MoRiLE) tool (Huggins, 2015).
- Most of the tools employ a checklist approach (comprising a mix of closed, binary yes/no and open questions) focused on indicators of risks. However, some of these tools introduce additional criteria for better accuracy, e.g. (UNDRR, 2022) or the MoRILE Matrix (Home Office, 2018).
- The added value of models, such as the MoRILE Sample Matrix is the addition to impact and likelihood of two other categories (Confidence Score and Organisational Position).
- Confidence score is divided between intelligence assessment & thematic area knowledge; it thus combines credibility of intelligence available with general knowledge of the domain, presumably acquired over a longer time span which would also enable a better understanding of how the intelligence fit in into already identified patterns of action.
- The Organisation Position is directly related to the organisation’s ability to address the threat, by examining key components such as: reputation & politics; economic cost; capacity; capability.
- Clandestine entry in the EU has been labelled as one of the risks to EU security in the Frontex Risk Analysis.
- One of the identified sub-categories of this threat is the presence of human smugglers, which has led to a concentrated EU effort towards identifying and disrupting human smuggling networks. Available evidence suggests that these measures are neither cost-effective nor have had positive impact on reducing human smuggling.
- Quite the contrary, many scholars are arguing that the measures undertaken by Frontex and EU MS have had unintended consequences (Carling, 2017; Campana, 2017; Sanchez, 2017; Triandafyllidou, 2018), e.g. by ‘redirecting immigrant flow through illegal channels’ (Achilli, 2017: 137).
- Operations have been very closely, and overall, quite inefficient, as the only visible outcome was the creation & development of new routes (e.g. significant expansion of the land route via Russia & Finland as an alternative to former route via Ukraine, Belarus & Poland, or the appearance of new departure points from Tunisia and/or Lebanon on the Mediterranean).
- Similarly, tighter border control measures have not stopped smuggling activities but have deepened their humanitarian impact as well as further stimulating corruption (e.g. provision of VIP services which would include agreements with border police at high prices) (Carling, 2017; Achilli et all, 2018).
- Moreover, the increased measures have led to higher prices for smuggling services (e.g. migrant were forced to pay these prices when they found themselves trapped in different countries with no possibility of continuing their journey), implicitly making these activities highly profitable for smugglers as well as heavily streamlined as seen from the increased branding activities of smugglers on social media.
- One way to address this issue is to expand the existing risk matrix to consider the cost, feasibility, practicality, and effectiveness of control measures (following the model on the MoRILE Matrix) entitled Organisation Position.
- Cost of intervention or control measures
- Feasibility of implementing control measures
- Practicality of control measures
- Effectiveness of control measures
- Evidence has already shown that a risk with an associated high cost of intervention certainly has to be considered as more severe (Mzougui et al, 2020). However, cost is not enough as seen from the example above, where cost is not correlated with practicality or effectiveness.
- To measure these additional four categories the following questions, need to be answered:
- Cost of intervention or control measures
- What are the direct costs (financial, logistics, time)?
- What are the indirect costs (e.g. training, societal and diplomatic costs)
- What is the damage to the organisation, if authorities responsible do not act?
- Feasibility of implementing control measures
- Does the organisation have the required knowledge (intelligence)?
- Does the organisation have the required personnel/logistical resources?
- Are there any political or reputation pressures?
- How long is it expected that resources will be committed?
- What is the effect on the organisation to do other work?
- Are the measures in alignment with the regulatory framework?
- Practicality of control measures
- Can the measures be implemented in all circumstances?
- Are resources available?
- Are the measures compatible with existing processes?
- Are the measures aligned with the organization’s goals, values
- Effectiveness of control measures
- Do the control measures meet public expectations?
- Are resources allocated correctly?
- Are there alternative solutions to address this risk?
- Negative side-effects of the intervention?
- Do the measures achieve their intended goal?
- Cost of intervention or control measures
Resources
Achilli, L., Sanchez, Gabriella, Zhang, S. (2018). Migrant smuggling as a collective strategy and insurance policy: views from the margins, Special issue of The ANNALS of the American academy of political and social science, Vol. 676, No. 1. Available at https://hdl.handle.net/1814/51944.
Campana, P. (2018). Out of Africa: The organization of migrant smuggling across the Mediterranean. European Journal of Criminology, p.147-73.
Carling, J. (2017). How Should Migrant Smuggling be Confronted? Global Compact on Migration. Available at https://publications.iom.int/books/how-should-migrant-smuggling-be-confronted.
Mzougui, I.; Carpitella, S.; Certa, A.; El Felsoufi, Z.; Izquierdo, J. Assessing Supply Chain Risks in the Automotive Industry through a Modified MCDM-Based FMECA. Processes 2020, 8, 579. DOI: 10.3390/pr8050579.
Sanchez, G. (2017). Critical Perspectives on Clandestine Migration Facilitation: An Overview of Migrant Smuggling Research. Journal on Migration and Human Security, 5(1), pp.9-27.
Triandafyllidou, A. (2018). Migrant Smuggling: Novel Insights and Implications for Migration Control Policies. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 676(1), pp.212-221. DOI: 10.1177/0002716217752330.
