- Risk impacts is a core component of the risk assessment process.
- Risk impact factors are variables or conditions that influence the severity and consequences of a risk if it materializes.
- Understanding these factors helps organizations, policymakers and governments to better assess, manage, and mitigate potential risks.
- Additionally, these impact categories help in understanding the nature and severity of risks and aid in prioritizing risk management efforts.
- As part of the process of constructing a framework to complement the systems thinking approach in disaster management, experts have developed key system components to guide analysts through scenario development. These components are part of the so-called impact webs which are built based on the “impact chain methodology for climate risk assessment” and were developed to visualize “how cascading effects influence, propagate, and enhance system competences through interconnection.”
- To estimate the impacts and consequences of the corresponding threats and vulnerabilities related to specific risk scenarios CRiTERIA used the so-called “impact webs”.
- The “impact chain methodology for climate risk assessment” serves as the foundation for these risk impact categories, which are used in the assessment process.
- These will enable analysts to predict potential connected repercussions and consequences that intensify during the threat scenario by developing several risk scenarios. These effects are also utilized to understand how failure cascades and dangers spread throughout the system. Therefore, by taking into account these effect categories, authorities, professionals, and organizations can gain a better understanding of the possible outcomes of risk events.
- The following table lists the guidelines for building an impact web. The Key System Components and Guiding Questions were adjusted as a framework to suit the context of the CRiTERIA project. Since this framework is more focused on climate-related or natural disasters, certain key components were intentionally omitted. However, the framework remains applicable to the risks associated with CRiTERIA and will provide adequate guidance.
| Key System Component | Guiding Question |
|---|---|
| Impacts (direct and cascading/propagating) | What were positive, negative and direct impacts resulting from the analysed crisis? |
| Risks | What were possible impacts that still didn’t manifest? |
| Interventions | Which actions were taken in response to the crisis? |
| Drivers of vulnerability | What processes or conditions influenced the negative impacts that occurred as a result of the analysed crisis? |
| Root causes | What are the underlying factors influencing these drivers of vulnerability? |
| Agents | What decision-making entities influenced risk and impacts (positively and negatively) within the system and how? |
| Affected sectors or systems | Which sectors (e.g. tourism) or systems (e.g. social, economic, financial, education) were affected? |
| Linkages and feedback loops | Linkages between elements of the system, including feedback loops? |
| Tipping points | Thresholds past which the system faces critical transitions (e.g. collapse of the border management) |
- For the purposes of the CRiTERIA analysis the following impact categories were identified. The following table shows a list of impact-categories, denoted by IC1 – IC9, with short descriptions that give a holistic approach and characterization of the impact of migration-related risks. These impact categories need to be evaluated and updated regularly, based on the interventions and actions that are taken in response to the crisis. Since the corresponding mitigation controls and actions are directly related with the mitigation-related risks and their impacts, these need also to be evaluated and upgraded accordingly.
| No | Impact Category | Impact Justifications |
|---|---|---|
| IC1 | Direct Impacts and Cascading/Propagating | Risks associated with migration, border security weaknesses, and threats have both direct and cascading repercussions. Legal and security issues, economic consequences, difficulties with social integration, humanitarian issues, and other associated implications are among the most frequent direct impacts. Transnational crime, diplomatic strained relations, public opinion and political reaction, worldwide economic impact, and other associated global repercussions are examples of cascading or propagating effects. Furthermore, depending on the immediate effects of the crisis under analysis, consequences may be favourable or negative. |
| IC2 | Indirect possible impacts | Beyond the immediate effects, there is a broad spectrum of indirect affects and effects associated to migration-related risks. These could include an increase in drug trafficking, human trafficking, migrant smuggling, and other implicit repercussions and implications related to irregular migration and border security. |
| IC3 | Drivers of vulnerability | This impact category is broad and complex, with roots frequently found in intricate political, social, and environmental issues. Vulnerability drivers have to do with the procedures or circumstances that shaped the unfavourable effects that emerged throughout the crisis.For instance, the rise of populism and the far right is a common cause of vulnerability. Furthermore, as immigration to Europe increases, anti-immigration groups are growing in popularity, leading to negative consequences. |
| IC4 | Root Causes | This impact category and the preceding category, IC3-drivers of vulnerability, are closely connected. The underlying variables impacting the drivers of vulnerability are referred to as root causes. Similar to the preceding category, underlying reasons are frequently deeply ingrained and linked to more general social, political, economic, and environmental variables. |
| IC5 | Agents | People or organizations that make decisions and have an impact on risk and affects (either favourably or adversely) on the system are included in this impact category. For instance, the control of external boundaries in an efficient and trustworthy manner is important for order security. To achieve this, each EU Member States located on the external borders of the EU needs to maintain control over a specific portion of the EU's external borders. Actions taken by the Commission also seek to guarantee that immigrants' fundamental rights are upheld. Other agents, such as international organisations and/or local civil society organisations also try to ensure that the vulnerabilities of migrants are addressed, and their human rights protected. Sometimes, these actors enter into conflicts with negative impact throughout the ecosystem. |
| IC6 | Affected sectors or systems | Several industries and systems are impacted, in both the countries of origin and the countries of destination. These sectors include the travel and tourism industry as well as the social, economic, and financial domains, education, internal security, human rights, and other impacted industries. Non-EU workers were disproportionately represented in a few particular economic sectors, including construction, domestic work, hospitality and food service, administrative and support services, and lodging, as evidenced by the "Statistics on migration to Europe" report from 2022. Additionally, when it came to employment, non-EU nationals were disproportionately represented in the fields of cleaning and assistance, personal care, personal services, construction, mining, manufacturing, transportation, food preparation assistants, and agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. But in other economic areas, including as public administration and defence, mandatory social security, education, human health and social work, and professional, scientific, and technological activities, non-EU residents were disproportionately underrepresented. Furthermore, there was a deficiency of non-EU citizens in the ranks of teaching professionals, associate professionals in business and administration, secretarial and administrative workers, associate professionals in science and engineering, business and administration professionals, and health professionals. |
| IC7 | Linkages and feedback loops | This impact category refers to the interconnected relationships and processes that exist between various factors and systems, often leading to mutual influence and feedback effects. In the context of migration-related risks, linkages and feedback loops can help illustrate how different elements interact and reinforce each other. Among others, linkages between elements of the system can include reinforcing operations of organized crime groups (e.g. enhanced border security measures on a particular border may drive migrants towards riskier routes and/or may increase the profits of human smugglers through the increased price for their services as a result of the perceived heightened risk). |
| IC8 | Tipping points | This impact category describes the interdependent processes and relationships that occur between different systems and elements, frequently resulting in feedback effects and reciprocal influence. Linkages and feedback loops can be used to show how various variables interact and reinforce one another in the context of migration-related concerns. Links between components of the system can include, but are not limited to, the propagation of migratory dynamics, the functioning of organized crime groups, social feedback loops, the relationships between politics, economy, and health, environmental feedback loops, and other relevant issues. |
| IC9 | Humanitarian Impacts | This category of humanitarian impact describes how things happen, what people do, or how policies affect people's quality of life, especially in terms of their fundamental needs, safety, and dignity. Numerous events, such as natural disasters, armed conflicts, political instability, economic crises, and social injustices, can have these effects. Human rights violations, displacement, food insecurity, health effects, violence and trauma, loss of life, economic hardship, social unrest, and other associated effects are a few typical humanitarian consequences. |
Resources
UNDRR & UNU-EHS (2022). Understanding and managing cascading and systemic risks: lessons from COVID-19. UNDRR, p.22. Available at: https://reliefweb.int/report/world/understanding-and-managing-cascading-and-systemic-risks-lessons-covid-19
Mathias Czaika, H. B.-N. (2021, March ). Spatial and categorical dependence of European migration flows. QuantMig, Deliverable 5.2.
McAuliffe M, T. A. (2022). World Migration Report 22. Geneva: International Organization for Migration.
Valentina Di Iasio, J. W. (2022). The determinants of Refugees’ Destinations: Where Do Refugees Locate within the EU? QuantMig Governance Framework.
Valentina Di Iasio, J. W. (2023). Policy, Uncertainty and Attitudes: What Drives EU Migration? QuantMig Governance Framework.
