- One defining element of border security risks is their interconnectedness.
- There is no unidirectional flow of interconnectedness. Migrant smuggling doesn’t have to be the primary illicit act from which others branch out. On the contrary, organised crime groups might be more focused on drug trafficking, with migrant smuggling just being another illegal service being utilised.
- There are several challenges to clearly assessing the level of risk integration:
- It is difficult, if not impossible, to definitively assess the likelihood of various risks occurring simultaneously. Analysed risks exhibit mutual dependence, sharing infrastructure and transportation methods. This dependence takes various, time-varying, and complex forms, making it challenging to determine the likelihood of concurrent occurrences of two or more risks.
- Measuring different risks over distinct time horizons presents a challenge, particularly due to poly-criminality. Precisely quantifying how various organised crime groups offer different services is challenging since such information is not publicly available. Consequently, existing numbers, such as the correlation between migrant smuggling and the sale of fake or fraudulent documents, lack definitiveness.
- Determining the operational risk of rising from the risk integration poses a challenge. Methodologically, integrating different categories of risks is challenging because these risks influence possibilities in opposite directions.
- Continuous updates are necessary for risk integration (Li, J. et al., 2012).
- When measuring the level of risk interconnectedness on the basis of open-source information collected from social media the following dimensions need to be taken into account:
- Route is very important. The analysis has shown that correlation between the two threats is higher when it comes to certain routes. E.g. in the case of smuggling routes via Russia into Northern Europe, many of the accounts offering smuggling services from Russia into the EU either mention the need for a Russian visa or offer services of assistance to acquire such a visa in different ways (e.g. providing documentation to support medical tourism, tourist visa, study visa). References to visa/travel documents appear in approx. 50% of all posts analysed. This is not the case for accounts providing smuggling services on the Northern Mediterranean, where there is seldom any reference to false documents.
- Difficult to ascertain whether the service provider is the same. The accounts offering smuggling services are not always the same as the accounts offering fraudulent documents. This being said, several instances were encountered where the account offering smuggling services mentions the need for a visa. Even when fraudulent documents are not explicitly offered as a service, there are occasionally references of smugglers having provided them in the individual accounts of migrants telling their stories within these groups.
- Different services are offered on different platforms. While smuggling services are somewhat openly advertised on Facebook Groups for many of the routes currently in use , when it comes to the provision of fraudulent documents, this was only referred to on Facebook (often without images just using emoticons of flags). The channels provided for more information were closed groups on Telegram. When it comes to Telegram it is often that both services are openly advertised in groups dedicated to migration, with accounts normally providing ample evidence (videos of border crossings, detailed photos of visas, passports etc).
- This being said, empirical analysis seems to indicate the following risk integration patterns in the field of migration:
- High likelihood of integration among the following risks: human smuggling, drug trafficking and human trafficking
- Eastern Land Borders: Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland and Norway land borders with Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus and the Russian Federation
- Migrant smuggling networks smuggle migrants from Ukraine, Turkey, and Afghanistan into or through Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria or Poland.
- Migrant smuggling network smuggling migrants from Belarus to Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, with Belarusian authorities facilitating the entry and irregular border crossing of migrants and asylum seekers who mostly originate from Middle Eastern, sub-Saharan African, and Central Asian countries.
- Turkish organised crime groups import and distribute heroin by passing through Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Poland.
- Human trafficking from Romania and Moldova to Russia, Turkey, Italy, Cyprus, Germany and the UAE.
- Western Balkan: Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Croatia at the land borders with countries from the Western Balkan region
- Tighter controls on the borders with Croatia and Hungary have led to the emergence of new informal routes for migrant smuggling that run via Serbia and Montenegro into Bosnia and Herzegovina (west) or from Serbia into Bulgaria and Romania (east). Migrants mainly originate from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Syria.
- Drugs usually transit through Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia and Montenegro, before entering Serbia, and from there, it is usually sent to Western and Central Europe.
- Migrants from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, Algeria, and Morocco are smuggled from Serbia or Bosnia to Croatia, from where they go to Slovenia, Italy, and Austria.
- Cocaine shipments, usually arriving from South and Central American countries, are trafficked into Croatia by sea or by land from Western Europe or Turkey.
- Eastern Mediterranean: Cyprus, Greece sea border, Greece and Bulgaria land borders with Turkey
- Use of fake documents and irregular migration; In Cyprus, people arrive via small boats and commercial ships, while illegally established universities in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) offer student visas to African nationals, most of whom never attend classes.
- Human trafficking of women and girls of migrant heritage by Albanian organised crime groups.
- Smuggling of arms into Greece by air, sea and land corridors in the south and east, mainly from North Africa and the Levant.
- Migrant smuggling networks smuggle migrants from Syria, Afghanistan, Palestine and Somalia, from Turkey or Libya, through Greece and the Balkans to Italy.
- Migrant smuggling networks provide in-transit logistics for the smuggling of migrants from Turkey to Serbia or Romania.
- Western Mediterranean: Spain’s land and sea borders without the Canary Islands
- Sexual exploitation is the primary form of human trafficking in Spain, with Andalusia being the region where it is most prevalent. Chinese and Spanish networks dominate the sex trafficking market in large urban centres. Victims are usually girls and women coming from Eastern Europe, South and Central America, Vietnam, Thailand, China and Nigeria.
- Migrant smuggling networks smuggle migrants from North Africa.
- Drug trafficking is constant, Valencia and Algeciras are the main entry points for the drug.
- Western African: Canary Islands
- Migrant smuggling networks smuggle migrants from Senegal, Morocco, and Mali.
- Organised crime groups throw drug supplies into the sea to be picked up and distributed.
- Central Mediterranean: Italy and Malta sea borders
- Human trafficking with both foreign nationals and local people being targeted for sexual and labour exploitation. Victims of trafficking primarily come from North and West Africa, Nigeria in particular; Eastern European countries, such as Albania and Bulgaria; Latin America and Asia, mainly China, India and Pakistan.
- Migrants are smuggled from Libya and Tunisia in precarious boats, while an increasing number of people from Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, and Syria are being smuggled from Turkey and Greece to Italy using leisure and fishing boats.
- Foreign criminal groups import heroin into Italy, and local criminal groups take over once it enters the country. The coastline along the Adriatic Sea has emerged as a key area for drug trafficking.
- Malta is a destination country for heroin, which is typically smuggled from Afghanistan via Western Europe, Turkey, or North Africa.
- Migrant smuggling networks smuggle migrants coming through Libya and Tunisia. Migrants are usually from Sudan, Tunisia, Egypt, Bangladesh, and Côte d’Ivoire.
Resources
European Migrant Smuggling Centre (EMSC). (2022). European Migrant Smuggling Centre 6th Annual Report 2022. EUROPOL. Available at: https://www.europol.europa.eu/cms/sites/default/files/documents/EMSC%206%20th%20Annual%20Report.pdf
Global Organised Crime Index. Available at: https://ocindex.net/
Li, J. et al. (2012). Risk integration mechanisms and approaches in banking industry. International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making, Vol. 11, No. 6 (2012) pp. 1183-1213.
UNDRR & UNU-EHS (2022). Understanding and managing cascading and systemic risks: lessons from COVID-19. UNDRR, p.8. Available at: https://reliefweb.int/report/world/understanding-and-managing-cascading-and-systemic-risks-lessons-covid-19
