Migration is one of the social and political sectors in which perceptions and narratives play a major role, if not pivotal, in guiding public opinion, orienting collective behaviours, and shaping policies. It is not surprising that many of them, produced, reproduced, and shared by multiple actors (e.g., policymakers, public administrators, media operators, NGOs’ representatives, migrants, or the public opinion at large) are questionable, simplifying, and often baseless.
However, many of these perceptions and narratives are incomplete, biased, or even completely unfounded. This is due to several factors, but two of them deserve to be mentioned.
The first factor is the increasing complexity of mobility patterns occurring in the last decades, due to, e.g., the growing diversification of societies and cultural patterns, the presence of powerful and pervasive technologies, the increased mobility of people, the acceleration of the economic and social globalisation processes, and the change of the international political scenarios.
The second factor is that migration has become and continues to be a major political battleground in Europe as well as in other regional areas, with the effect of activating distorting mechanisms which are typical of political communication (polarised thinking, overgeneralization, emotional reasoning, labelling, mental filtering, etc.).
The purpose of this tool is to briefly present and briefly analyse 15 of the most common perceptions about migration to see how reliable they are. Being aware of their existence and prevalence is important to use OSINT technologies more responsibly and effectively.
The tool is organised into three sections, respectively devoted to:
- Perceptions of migration trends
- Perceptions of the migratory journey
- Perceptions of migration policies
A. Perceptions of migration trends
1. We live in an age of unprecedented mass migration
The total number of people on the move is undoubtedly increasing. However, this is mainly because the total population is growing. Indeed, the total migrant stock – the number of people living outside their country of birth – has been a relatively stable percentage of the world’s population for a long time (3.1% in 1960, 2.2% in 1975 and 3.3% in 2015). More recently, the total migrant stock has been increasing to 3.6% in 2020, but it remains to be seen whether this will become a consolidated trend. On the whole, since the number of migrants is increasing in any case, we can consider this view to be partially true.
See, for example: Carling, J., & Talleraas, C. (2016). Root causes and drivers of migration. Oslo: Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO); IOM, World Migration Report 2024 (M. McAuliffe and L.A. Oucho, eds.). International Organization for Migration (IOM), Geneva
2. Mass migrations are mainly occurring from developing countries to high-income countries
About 40% of international migration is from South to South, 35% from South to North, 20% from North to North and the remaining movements are from North to South. Most international migrants in sub-Saharan Africa (almost 90%) come from the same region. Therefore, the claim that migration from the Global South to the Global North increased more in the last two decades than migration within the Global South does not align with observed data. Therefore, this view can be considered as false.
See, for example: Awad, I., & Natarajan, U. (2018). Migration myths and the global south. Cairo Rev Glob Aff, 10, 46-55; Crawley H., Teye, J. (2024). How Global South Perspectives Challenge Thinking On Migration, UNU-CPR (blog), 2024-01-17, https://unu.edu/cpr/blog-post/how-global-south-perspectives-challenge-thinking-migration.
3. Poverty is overwhelmingly the major cause of international migration
Most migratory flows do not originate from the poorest countries and most migrants do not come from the poorest layers of the local society. The reasons why people migrate are often multiple and changing. They can range from exposure to immediate risks (as in the case of serious political or economic crises) to the search for a particular way of living that allows them to pursue their own identity-making project (the so-called “lifestyle migration”). Each migrant’s decision is shaped by a unique combination of these factors, making it essential to consider the broader context when analysing migration trends. Stating that poverty is the major cause of migration is an oversimplification of the complex factors driving international migration. Based on the scientific literature, the view that poverty is the major cause of migration can therefore be judged to be false.
See, for example: Awad, I., & Natarajan, U. (2018). Migration myths and the global south. Cairo Rev Glob Aff, 10, 46-55; Cummings, C., Pacitto, J., Lauro, D., & Foresti, M. (2015). Why people move: understanding the drivers and trends of migration to Europe. London: Overseas Development Institute
4. Economic migrants and asylum-seekers are two clearly distinguished components of migration
The distinction between economic migrants and asylum seekers continues to shape national and international migration policies. Some factors generate types of migration with distinctive characteristics. However, migration flows are now much more mixed than in the past. Also due to the increasing securitisation of European and national migration policies, most migrants, regardless of their legal status, follow the same routes, adopt the same migration strategies and tend to enter their destination countries illegally. In conclusion, although migrants and asylum seekers have increasingly similar characteristics, the distinction still has explanatory power and can therefore be considered at least partially true.
See, for example: Crawley, H., & Skleparis, D. (2018). Refugees, migrants, neither, both: Categorical fetishism and the politics of bounding in Europe’s ‘migration crisis’. Journal of ethnic and migration studies, 44(1), 48-64; Kent, J. (2021). Looking back and moving forward: the research agenda on the global governance of mixed migration. International Migration, 59(1), 89-104
5. By far more men than women are involved in migration
There is a common perception that migrants are overwhelmingly male. The data show that the picture is much more complex. In fact, the number of women migrants is increasing over time. There are more female than male international migrants in destination countries in Europe and North America. In contrast, the number of male international migrants is much higher than the number of female migrants in most Asian countries. Overall, the distribution of female and male international migrants tends to be about equal in most major destination countries. The view that men are much more involved in migration than women can therefore be seen as false.
See, for example: Rakzova, O., Brudzinska, K., Kudzko, A., & Navratilova, Z. (2019). Europe’s migration myths. Globsec; IOM, World Migration Report 2024 (M. McAuliffe and L.A. Oucho, eds.). International Organization for Migration (IOM), Geneva
B. Perceptions of the migratory journey
6. All migrants want to resettle in the final destination country permanently
Migratory projects are becoming more and more diversified due to many factors, including increased access to communication, greater opportunities for mobility and greater diversification of societies. Migrants have different motivations, plans and circumstances that influence their settlement intentions. These lead them to develop a wide range of migration strategies, such as settling permanently in the host country, returning home after a while with money to invest in the home country, or alternating periods in the host country with periods in the country of origin (circular migration). Consequently, cultural and social integration can no longer be understood as the “natural result” of a successful migratory path and the lack of it can no longer be understood as a failure for migrants. All in all, the idea that migrants want always to resettle in the destination country is outdated and can therefore be considered false.
See, for example: Hugo, G. (2013). What we know about circular migration and enhanced mobility. Migration Policy Institute, 7, 1-10; Basu, K. (2012). Sequential and circular migration: theory and decision rules under imperfect information. Journal of Economic Research, 17, 203-221. Scholten, P., Crul, M., & Van de Laar, P. (2019). Coming to terms with superdiversity: The case of Rotterdam (p. 241). Springer Nature; Czanyi, Z. (2018). Exploring the behavioural aspects of migration decisions in the biography of a returner. Análise Europeia, 3(5), 58-90
7. Migration is a planned process that implies a single journey from one place to another
Migratory journeys are usually seen by the public and often in political narratives as tourist journeys, i.e. a fully planned, simple movement from place A to place B. On the contrary, migrants have no clear idea of where they are going and how they are going to get there. The migratory journey usually lasts many months, if not years, which makes migration a social condition in which migrants can be immersed for a long time, marked by different kinds of experiences, consisting of many temporary resettlements and intermediate stages. This view of the migratory journey is far from representing the real world and can be considered false.
See, for example: Crawley, H., Jones, K., McMahon, S., Duvell, F., & Sigona, N. (2016). Unpacking a rapidly changing scenario: migration flows, routes and trajectories across the Mediterranean. (Report No. 1). Centre for Trust, Peace and Social Relations, Coventry University; Hinsch, M., & Bijak, J. (2023). The effects of information on the formation of migration routes and the dynamics of migration. Artificial Life, 29(1), 3-20; Schapendonk, J., Bolay, M., & Dahinden, J. (2020). The conceptual limits of the ‘migration journey’. De-exceptionalising mobility in the context of West African trajectories. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 1-17.
8. Female migrants are the victims of migration and play a passive role in that
Indeed, women migrants are more vulnerable than men to a range of risks, including trafficking, exploitation and gender-based violence. In addition, social norms and discrimination can limit women’s mobility and opportunities in both countries of origin and destination. However, this often leads to women being portrayed as victims or as people who are forced to migrate, uneducated, poor, passive, often sold, abducted or trafficked, and unaware of the risk of sexual exploitation to which they are exposed, even though the proportion of women forced to migrate is small compared to the total number of female migrants. Women’s active role in all stages of the migration process (decision to migrate, preparation and implementation of the migratory journey, resettlement in the host country) tend to be overlooked and even hidden. So, it is not true that female migrants play a passive role, but women are indeed more exposed to risks than men for a variety of reasons. We then consider this view to be only partially true.
See, for example: Kosnick, K. (2014). Mediating migration: New roles for (mass) media. InMedia. The French Journal of Media Studies, (5); Andrijasevic, R., & Mai, N. (2016). Trafficking (in) representations: Understanding the recurring appeal of victimhood and slavery in neoliberal times. Anti-Trafficking Review, (7); Rakzova, O., Brudzinska, K., Kudzko, A., & Navratilova, Z. (2019). Europe’s migration myths. Globsec.
9. Migrants are lonely adventurers
There is a consolidated tendency to deal with migration using hydraulic metaphors like “migratory flows”, “migration waves”, or “dams against immigration”. The underlying idea is that migration is made up of isolated individuals at the mercy of external forces they are not able to manage. This view is obsolete and baseless. Migrants are embedded in social configurations going far beyond their family circle; they create and use migration infrastructures and services, including brokers and smugglers; they participate in networks and intermediate associations; they continuously access, produce and exchange information; thanks to smartphones and laptops, migrants and their families can be constantly in contact with many other actors in the country of origin, transit countries, and destination countries. If the condition of isolation is often part of the migrant experience, migrants as such cannot be considered socially isolated. Overall, the image of the migrant as a lonely adventurer is false.
See, for example: Kosnick, K. (2014). Mediating migration: New roles for (mass) media. InMedia. The French Journal of Media Studies, (5); Andrijasevic, R., & Mai, N. (2016). Trafficking (in) representations: Understanding the recurring appeal of victimhood and slavery in neoliberal times. Anti-Trafficking Review, (7); Rakzova, O., Brudzinska, K., Kudzko, A., & Navratilova, Z. (2019). Europe’s migration myths. Globsec.
10. Migrants do not know and are poorly aware of the risks related to the migratory journey
Prospective migrants tend to be well aware of the risks associated with both the migratory journey and settlement in the host country as undocumented migrants. They also show a relatively high capacity to make decisions, assess risks and implement their decisions. However, various mechanisms lead them to give less weight to risks in their decision to migrate: those who already want to migrate tend to adopt risk-averse behaviours that lead them to minimise risks; potential migrants are exposed to the propaganda of smugglers aimed at attracting potential clients; migrants who return home tend to give a positive account of their migration experience for reasons of social prestige (to appear successful) or to avoid worrying their families, leading potential migrants to overlook risks and obstacles. However, it cannot be ignored that in many cases it is riskier to stay in the country of origin than to migrate elsewhere, so migration appears to be the most rational choice to take. All in all, we could say that migrants do not know the risks related to the migratory journey but are anyhow poorly aware of them. Therefore, this view is partially true.
See, for example: Alpes, M. J., & Nyberg Sorensen, N. (2015). Migration risk campaigns are based on wrong assumptions. DIIS Policy Brief; Van Bemmel, S. (2020). The perception of risk among unauthorised migrants in Ghana. Journal of Risk Research, 23(1), 47-61; İçli, T. G., Sever, H., & Sever, M. (2015). A survey study on the profile of human smugglers in Turkey. Advances in Applied Sociology, 5(01), 1.
11. The decision to migrate is a one-off event, mainly based on a cost-benefit analysis by individual migrants
Another common, though rarely stated, perception is that migrants make decisions as we imagine business leaders to do: a decision taken by a single individual, perhaps after consultation, based on a careful cost-benefit analysis. This image is misleading. The decision to migrate usually involves or is influenced by different actors, including family, networks, friends or other communities. The decision is very rarely a one-off event, but more often a process consisting of different and often contradictory steps, resulting, for example, in different journeys and stays, changes in strategies, changes in routes, stops and accelerations. Finally, although potential migrants also make decisions taking into account what they perceive as costs and benefits, the decision almost always involves many other components that are interrelated in different ways and also change during the migration process. Therefore, although there are elements of truth in this view, it can be considered false overall.
See, for example, Cummings, C., Pacitto, J., Lauro, D., & Foresti, M. (2015). Why people move: understanding the drivers and trends of migration to Europe. London: Overseas Development Institute; Schapendonk, J., Bolay, M., & Dahinden, J. (2020). The conceptual limits of the ‘migration journey’. De-exceptionalising mobility in the context of West African trajectories. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 1-17; Ulrika, M. (2019). Irregular Migration: An Overview of Decision-Making Process, Eurasian Migration and Diaspora, 19(2).
12. Migrants have an unrealistically positive view of Europe
Prospective migrants’ representations of Europe and European countries are distorted and their expectations of a possible new life in Europe tend to be overly positive. European governments and European institutions reinforce these perceptions by promoting the idea of Europe as a place with a high standard of living, beautiful and historic places, vibrant economies, and a high level of legal protection and democratic life. The attractiveness of Europe is so strong that it activates various social and psychological mechanisms that lead potential migrants to focus on success stories while discounting negative reports from other migrants or other sources. However, migrants are also increasingly aware of the negative attitudes of European governments towards migration, growing intolerance towards migrants and reduced access to services and opportunities. For this reason, the image that prospective migrants have of Europe, while still overly positive, tends to be less attractive, without necessarily affecting the decision to migrate. Overall, the view that migrants have an unrealistically positive view of Europe can now be seen as only partially true.
See, for example: Prinz, V. (2005). Imagine migration. the migration process and its destination Europe in the eyes of Tanzanian Students. Stichproben-Vienna Journal of African Studies, 8, 119-139; Pajo, E. (2007). International migration, social demotion, and imagined advancement: An ethnography of socioglobal mobility. Springer Science & Business Media; Carling, J., Fall, P. D., Hernández-Carretero, M., Sarr, M. Y., & Wu, J. (2013). Migration aspirations in Senegal: Who wants to leave and why does it matter. European Policy Brief, Brussels.
C. Perceptions of migration policies
13. To stop migration, it is sufficient “to help them at home”
An increase in the level of development of the country of origin tends to increase rather than decrease migration; initially, development feeds migration and only after a certain threshold of development is reached does migration begin to decrease. Moreover, migration is driven by a variety of factors, including economic, social, political and environmental reasons. Increasing the level of development affects only some of these factors. Finally, development aid and economic exchange alone cannot change the socio-political dynamics or create the overall stability needed to significantly reduce migratory pressures. For these reasons, international aid has a mixed impact on migration and cannot be considered a game changer on its own. Therefore, the view that helping the countries of origin to stop migration can be considered substantially false.
See, for example: Clemens, M. A. (2014). Does development reduce migration?. In International handbook on migration and economic development. Edward Elgar Publishing; IOM (2017). World Migration Report 2018. International Organization for Migration; Gamso, J., & Yuldashev, F. (2018). Targeted foreign aid and international migration: Is development-promotion an effective immigration policy?. International Studies Quarterly, 62(4), 809-820.
14. Restrictive migration policies act as a deterrent and reduce migration flows
The increasing securitisation of European and national migration policies (i.e. the tendency to see migration mainly as a national security issue), the growing success of radical and xenophobic right-wing movements and parties, and the general tone of the debate on migration are well-known to prospective migrants, but their knowledge of European and national migration policies is rather vague and specific changes in them are rarely perceived. Therefore, restrictive migration policies per se may not influence the behaviour of potential migrants. However, the cultural and political environment they create may have some impact, if not on the decision to migrate, then at least on the countries to which they migrate and the routes they take. We can say that restrictive migration policies can act as a deterrent and reduce migration flows, but not in a deterministic and linear way, as other factors may come into play. Therefore, this view can be considered partially true.
See, for example: Townsend, J., & Oomen, C. (2015). Before the boat: Understanding the migrant journey: EU asylum: Towards 2020 project. Migration Policy Institute Europe; Schans, D., & Optekamp, C. (2016). Raising awareness, changing behavior. Combatting irregular migration through information campaigns. Ministerie von Veiligheid en Justitie, The Netherlands. Cahier, 11; Holland, A. C., & Peters, M. E. (2020). Explaining migration timing: political information and opportunities. International Organization, 74(3), 560-583.
15. Communication campaigns are effective in persuading potential migrants not to migrate
The idea that communication campaigns aimed at potential migrants can change their opinions, expectations or beliefs is widely shared by the promoters of information campaigns aimed at migrants. But it is wrong. Almost all of these campaigns turn out to be ineffective for various reasons: they are promoted by actors that prospective migrants and their families do not trust, such as European institutions and European governments; they aim to increase the fear of migration among prospective migrants (fear of dying during the journey, fear of being exposed to risks as an illegal migrant in the country of destination, fear of being deported to other countries without any form of protection, etc. They do not distinguish between different target groups (e.g. rural and urban communities; women and men; potential migrants; ethnic and religious communities and do not diversify the message accordingly); they do not involve local actors. Overall, based on solid empirical evidence, we can say that communication campaigns, as they are usually conceived, are ineffective in influencing the decision of potential migrants to migrate. This view is therefore false.
See, for example: Carling, J., & Hernández-Carretero, M. (2011). Protecting Europe and protecting migrants? Strategies for managing unauthorised migration from Africa. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 13(1), 42-58.; Oeppen, C. (2016). ‘Leaving Afghanistan! Are you sure? ’European efforts to deter potential migrants through information campaigns. Human Geography, 9(2), 57-68; Van Bemmel, S. (2020). The perception of risk among unauthorized migrants in Ghana. Journal of Risk Research, 23(1), 47-61.
| # | Perceptions | Reliability |
|---|---|---|
| A. Perceptions of migration trends | ||
| 1 | We live in an age of unprecedented mass immigration | Partially true |
| 2 | Mass migrations are mainly occurring from developing countries to high-income countries | False |
| 3 | Poverty is overwhelmingly the major cause of international migration | False |
| 4 | Economic migrants and asylum-seekers are two clearly distinguished components of migration | Partially true |
| 5 | By far more men than women are involved in migration | False |
| B. Perceptions of the migration journey | ||
| 6 | All migrants want to resettle in the final destination country permanently | False |
| 7 | Migration is a planned process that implies a single journey from one place to another | False |
| 8 | Female migrants are the victims of migration and play a passive role in that | Partially true |
| 9 | Migrants are lonely adventurers | False |
| 10 | Migrants do not know and are poorly aware of the risks related to the migratory journey | Partially true |
| 11 | The decision to migrate is a one-off event, mainly based on a cost-benefit analysis by individual migrants | False |
| 12 | Migrants have an unrealistically positive view of Europe | Partially true |
| C. Perceptions of the migration policies | ||
| 13 | To stop migration, it is sufficient “to help them at home” | False |
| 14 | Restrictive migration policies act as a deterrent and reduce migration flows | Partially true |
| 15 | Communication campaigns are effective in persuading potential migrants not to come to Europe | False |
