What are the key components of risk assessment in the field of migration?

Risk assessment regarding irregular migration involves identifying, analysing, and evaluating various risks associated with unauthorized cross-border movements.

Key aspects to consider in this risk assessment include the following processes.

• Identification of risks and hazards
  • Risk identification is the first step in the risk assessment process, as the potential threats and opportunities must be identified before the assessment, response and controlling of the risks can take place. It is the most critical stage in the risk assessment process, as it ensures that all aspects of risks are acknowledged within the organization.
  • This process has to be systematic and comprehensive enough to ensure that no risk is unwittingly excluded. It is very important that during this stage all risks are identified and recorded, regardless of the fact that some of them may already be known and likely controlled by the corresponding authority.
  • In the field of migration, the following set of risks can be identified:
    • Security Risks: Identify threats to national and border security, including potential infiltration by criminal elements, terrorists, and increased smuggling activities.
    • Humanitarian Risks: Recognize the risks of human trafficking, exploitation, abuse, and adverse health conditions that irregular migrants might face.
    • Economic Risks: Assess the potential impact on local labour markets, public services, and economic stability.
    • Social Risks: Understand the challenges related to integration, social cohesion, and potential xenophobia.
    • Policy and Legal Risks: Evaluate the adequacy and enforcement of legal frameworks governing migration and asylum, and their alignment with international standards.
    • Environmental Risks: Consider the potential environmental impact of irregular migration on local ecosystems and resources.
• Data collection and risk analysis
  • Data collection and analysis is the process of identifying and analysing potential issues that could negatively impact countries’ outcomes and objectives.
  • Once the risks are identified, they are analysed to identify the qualitative and quantitative impact of the risk, ensuring that appropriate steps can be taken to mitigate or exploit them.
  • Risk analysis includes knowledge of the impact factors critical to success of the country in all related areas. It should be approached in a methodical way to ensure that all the risk related impacts have been evaluated and measured.
  • The result of the risk analysis can be used to produce a risk profile that gives a rating of significance to each risk and provides a tool for prioritizing risk treatment efforts.
  • This ranks the relative importance of each identified risk (IRM report, 2010, p. 20).
  • Furthermore, the risk analysis process assists the effective and efficient operation of the organization by identifying those risks that require attention by the corresponding departments and directors. This will facilitate the ability to prioritize risk control actions in terms of their impact to the corresponding country.
  • In the field of migration, the following data is often collected for risk analysis purposes:
    • Demographic Data: Data related to the number, origin, age, gender, and socio-economic background of irregular migrants.
    • Migration Routes: Information on existing and emerging migration routes and modes of transport used by irregular migrants.
    • Incident Reports: Information on incidents involving irregular migrants, such as detentions, rescues, and fatalities.
    • Health and Welfare Data: Information on the health status and living conditions of irregular migrants.
• Evaluation of risks and vulnerabilities
  • The risk and vulnerabilities evaluation process, which comes after the risk analysis process, is used to determine the significance and urgency of the risk actions, in order to set priorities. The result of the risk analysis can be used to produce a risk profile that gives a rating of significance to each risk and provides a tool for prioritizing risk treatment efforts (IRM report, 2010, p. 20).
  • This risk assessment process allows the risks to be mapped to specific risk strategies, which correspond to specific measures and controls in order to mitigate the corresponding risks and vulnerabilities.
  • Evaluation and control processes can include the following:
    • Border Controls: Evaluate the effectiveness and capacity of border control measures to detect and prevent irregular migration.
    • Protection Mechanisms: Assess the availability and effectiveness of protection mechanisms for vulnerable migrants (for a full list of vulnerabilities we recommend consulting the Human Security Filter).
    • Integration Policies: Examine the policies and programs in place to facilitate the integration of migrants into the host society.
• Stakeholder involvement
  • Stakeholder involvement, also known as stakeholder engagement or participation, is the process of actively involving individuals, groups, or organizations that may be affected by or have an interest in a project, decision, or policy. Effective stakeholder involvement ensures that diverse perspectives are considered, enhances transparency, fosters collaboration, and improves the quality and acceptance of decisions
  • Stakeholder involvement can include the following entities:
    • Government Agencies: Involve immigration, border control, law enforcement, and social services agencies in the assessment process.
    • International Organizations: Collaborate with organizations such as the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
    • Civil Society: Engage NGOs, community groups, and migrant associations to gain insights and support for risk mitigation strategies.
    • Private Sector: Include employers, healthcare providers, and other relevant private sector entities affected by irregular migration.
• Scenario Analysis
  • Scenario analysis is a strategic planning method used to explore and prepare for possible future events or conditions. It involves creating detailed and plausible scenarios that describe different ways the future might unfold based on varying assumptions about key uncertainties and drivers. This method helps organizations and individuals anticipate potential risks and vulnerabilities, making it easier to develop robust strategies and make informed decisions.
  • Scenario analysis can include the following cases:
    • Best-case Scenarios: Analyse situations where effective policies and cooperation reduce the risks associated with irregular migration.
    • Worst-case Scenarios: Consider scenarios where increased migration flows overwhelm existing systems, leading to severe humanitarian and security crises.
    • Most Likely Scenarios: Evaluate the most plausible outcomes based on current trends and available data.
• Mitigation Strategies
  • Mitigation strategies are actions and measures designed to reduce or eliminate the negative impacts of potential risks or threats. These strategies aim to minimize the likelihood of an adverse event occurring or to lessen its severity if it does happen. Mitigation strategies are essential in various contexts, including environmental management, disaster risk reduction, project management, and business continuity planning.
  • Some common mitigation strategies are the following:
    • Avoidance: Altering plans to eliminate the risk.
    • Mitigation: Reducing the likelihood or impact of the risk.
    • Transfer: Shifting the risk to a third party (e.g., insurance, outsourcing).
    • Acceptance: Acknowledging the risk and preparing to manage its impact if it occurs.
  • Some common methods used for developing action plans, allocating resources, and implementing control measures are the following:
    • Policy Development: Formulate policies aimed at addressing the root causes of irregular migration, such as poverty, conflict, and lack of opportunities.
    • Strengthening Institutions: Enhance the capacity of institutions responsible for managing migration, including border security and asylum systems.
    • International Cooperation: Foster cooperation between countries of origin, transit, and destination to manage migration flows and share best practices.
    • Public Awareness Campaigns: Conduct campaigns to inform potential migrants about the risks of irregular migration and available legal pathways.
    • Support Programs: Develop programs to support the integration of migrants and provide humanitarian assistance where needed.
• Risk monitoring and review
  • One of the most critical factors affecting the efficiency and effectiveness of the organization’s risk management process is the establishment of an ongoing monitoring and reviewing process.
  • This process involves monitoring and review of performance for communication and consultation and makes sure that the specified management action plans remain relevant and updated.
  • The implementation of this risk strategy is based on ISO 31000:2018 (Guidelines, 2018), which recognizes the importance of feedback by risk monitoring, control and communication as crucial processes in the development of a holistic risk management system.
  • ‘Monitoring and review’ ensures that the organization monitors risk performance and learns from experience. While control activities are setting policies and procedures that an organization uses and applies, the monitoring involves the “ongoing management activities”.
  • When the organization has both the right controls or metrics and also the monitoring and over-sight in place, it can have better information accuracy, more efficient control and intelligent management of the risks and the organization as a whole.
  • Some common monitoring and review processes are the following:
    • Continuous Monitoring: Implement systems for ongoing monitoring of migration trends, incidents, and policy impacts.
    • Regular Reviews: Periodically review and update risk assessments to reflect new data, emerging trends, and changing circumstances.
    • Feedback Mechanisms: Establish mechanisms for feedback from stakeholders, including migrants, to improve the effectiveness of risk management strategies.

Conducting a comprehensive risk assessment regarding irregular migration involves a multidisciplinary approach, integrating insights from security, humanitarian, economic, social, legal, and environmental perspectives. This holistic approach helps in formulating balanced and effective policies to manage and mitigate the risks and vulnerabilities associated with irregular migration.